Industrial Automation Magazine India

Renewables are set to provide more than one-third of total electricity by early 2025

Published on : Friday 16-02-2024

Gaven Simon, Market Research Analyst, ARC Advisory Group.

What is the present global energy mix, and the current pace of transition, given the fact that global energy consumption is still rising?

According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency, the global energy mix of renewables was at 31 per cent in 2023 and is projected to rise to 35 per cent by 2025. Coal is the largest source of electricity globally, accounting for 36 per cent. Natural gas is the second largest producer at 22 per cent and hydropower is the third accounting for 11 per cent. By 2030, renewable energy is projected to account for 50 per cent of production with a majority of the growth from solar PV. Additionally, the world's electricity demand is projected to grow by 3.3 per cent by 2025.

 

While hydropower and nuclear energy are traditional renewable power sources, what potential do solar, wind, hydrogen, and other renewable sources hold in the decarbonisation process?

Global CO2 emissions from electricity generation are expected to fall by more than 2 per cent in 2024 after increasing 1 per cent in 2023. Fossil fuels in global generation are forecast to decline from 61 per cent in 2023 to 54 per cent in 2026.

Renewables are set to provide more than one-third of total electricity generation globally by early 2025. Low-emission sources including hydrogen, nuclear, wind, and solar are expected to cover all global demand growth over the next three years. The forecast of renewables is expected to rise to 37 per cent in 2026, largely supported by the expansion of cheaper solar PV. It is imperative that the expansion of renewable power generation should be matched with an accelerated investment in grids and technology to promote a smoother integration process.

 

What emerging technologies show the most promise for decarbonising energy production and consumption? How can innovation and research be accelerated to advance clean energy technologies?

In the United States, there have been two landmark bills that have been passed in the last three years that are strictly focused on advancing, constructing, and supporting clean energy. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act combined make up more than $ 800 billion. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law invests heavily in advancing clean energy infrastructure such as transmission lines, developing hydrogen hubs, and constructing a national EV charger network. The Inflation Reduction Act consists of tax credits, subsidies, and loans. The IRA helps reduce the risk and pressure for companies looking to break ground on a new clean energy facility. The IRA extended multiple tax credits such as the 45Q for carbon capture. These policies help bridge the public and private sectors to advance clean energy technologies.

Emerging technologies that show promise in decarbonising energy production and consumption include smart metering, concentrated solar power, wind turbine and solar panel recycling.

 

What solutions are available for energy storage to address the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources? How can energy distribution systems be optimised to reduce losses and increase efficiency?

Currently, the most obvious solution to the intermittency issues with renewables is to store the energy when the wind is blowing and sun is shining and use it once the energy is needed. Lithium ion batteries are a good option but capacity issues and resource management is a point of contention. Grid scale battery storage is a huge opportunity for growth and is in high demand. Some other solutions that are still in the research and development stage include hydrogen storage, thermal storage, and mobile energy storage via electric vehicles. Hydrogen is poised to be a large opportunity for energy storage and can be produced by splitting water using renewable electricity via electrolysis. Then the hydrogen can be used as a fuel for various uses or stored for extended periods of time. Additionally, energy distribution systems can be optimised to reduce losses with smart metering technology, updating reformers, and updating line capacity from 480 volts to 13,000 volts.

 

How can existing energy infrastructure be adapted or replaced to support decarbonisation?

There are a few interesting ways to adapt and retrofit existing energy infrastructure to support decarbonisation. For example, there are currently 190,000 miles of liquid gas pipelines in the United States (largest in the world). In June 2022, for the first time, Sustainable Aviation Fuel was delivered to New York Laguardia Airport through an existing petroleum pipeline. Through a successful partnership, Neste produced the SAF fuel and it was delivered to its customer Delta through the Colonial Partners pipeline. Other opportunities are available for existing fossil fuel power plant facilities, retrofitting them with Carbon Capture and Storage technologies can help reduce emissions directly for the source. The largest challenge with this option is making the addition of this technology cost-effective.

 

What investments are needed to upgrade and modernise the electrical grid for better integration of renewable energy sources?

The United States currently has a fragmented electric grid that has been built to accommodate fossil fuel power generation. The nation has a vast supply of wind and solar energy but most of the optimal areas for wind and solar energy are out of reach for the current grid. To successfully execute Biden's plan for 100 per cent renewable electric generation by 2035, the US would need to build thousands of miles of new high village transmission lines that span across multiple grid regions. According to the ZERO Lab from Princeton University, to unlock the full emission reduction potential of the IRA, the pace of transmission expansion must be more than double the rate over the last decade of an average of +2.3 per cent/year.

 

What policies and regulations are in place to support the decarbonisation of the energy sector? Are there specific targets and timelines for achieving net-zero emissions?

The United States, in the last three years has seen a historic wave of investment from the federal government to help achieve its 100 per cent 2050 net zero emission target. For example, in 2021, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law was enacted which in total included $550 billion in investments for upgrading the country's infrastructure including roads, bridges, transmission lines, and EV charging networks. $73 billion was dedicated to investing in upgrading the US’s power infrastructure, which included plans for building thousands of miles of transmission lines to distribute renewable energy. Additionally, a year later in 2022 the Inflation Reduction Act was passed which included a historic $400 billion in investments for clean energy. The IRA provides sweeping tax credits, loans, and grants to companies that invest, manufacture, and produce clean energy within the United States. It is estimated that by 2030, the IRA will have cut US emissions by 32-42 per cent emissions; which falls short of the US’s initial 50 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030.

 

(The views expressed in interviews are personal, not necessarily of the organisations represented.)

 

Gaven Simon, Market Research Analyst, ARC Advisory Group, is a member of the industrial sustainability and energy transition team and has industry experience in Government. Prior to joining ARC, Gaven worked as a producer on two sustainability podcasts, where he helped develop engaging stories that featured emerging leaders in the clean energy and tech industry. During his time at the University of Florida, Gaven was a civic scholar and co-wrote a climate resiliency map for the state of Florida.