Sharp fall in growth rate forecast for global battery equipment market, fueled by overcapacity and price declines.

London, October 20, 2023 – A sharp decline in the rate of growth is predicted for the global battery equipment market, falling to below 10% from 2025 as the market drops back from a peak in 2021/22, a new report reveals. The current downward outlook for the sector has also prompted market intelligence specialist Interact Analysis to downgrade its overall forecast for the global Li-ion battery equipment market.

The Battery Manufacturing Equipment – 2023 report shows that the size of the global Li-ion battery equipment market exceeded $12.4bn in 2022, expanding by 60.3% year-on-year, and it is expected to reach more than double that size ($25.9bn) by 2025.

Over 3 TWh of Li-ion battery production capacity is anticipated to be added globally in the next five years, pushing up demand for battery manufacturing equipment. However, the growth has been narrowed partly as a result of battery overcapacity, that from 2025 the annual growth rate is expected to fall back to within 10%. Interact Analysis has adjusted its growth forecasts downwards from 2025 as the explosion of the equipment market came earlier and faster than anticipated, with growth peaking in 2021/22. This means that the 5-year global CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is predicted to be 12.9%.

Updated research by Interact Analysis about global demand for Li-ion batteries is also included in the report, showing it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.4% between 2023 and 2028, rising to almost 4 TWh. Worldwide demand remains high for Li-ion batteries, but growth will fall back from a year-on-year increase of 72.6% recorded in 2022, when shipments equated to 822.2 GWh.

Sales of Li-ion batteries will continue to be dominated by the APAC region (74.6% in 2026), with China accounting for around 75% of shipments, but growth will be strongest in the Americas, which will see the highest CAGR (32.5%) over the next five years.

The global study also shows electric vehicle (EV) Li-ion battery shipments are driving the market, accounting for 74.3% of total Li-ion battery shipments last year. EV will continue to hold the largest market share at around 70% in 2028 and ESS is expected to see its share increase to over one quarter of all shipments.

The EV sector saw its total share of Li-ion battery sales surpass that sold into the CE market for the first time in 2017, while 2022 saw the share sold into the ESS market exceed CE sales for the first time. Although the proportion of Li-ion batteries shipped to the electric passenger vehicle sector will continue to account for the majority of sales, the electric truck sector is showing strong growth.

On future demand for battery equipment, Maya Xiao, Research Manager at Interact Analysis, says, “Governments around the world are continuing to implement clean energy policies, particularly those promoting the production and sales of new energy vehicles. The policies of carbon neutrality, carbon peak and the IRA in the United States, the European Critical Raw Materials Act, and the Dual Credit and subsidized purchase tax policies in China have boosted the market's expectation of battery sales, and increased readiness to invest in production capacity.”